Investment minister sees early-2019 GDP growth at 4.5 pct minimum

Polish Investment and Development Minister Jerzy Kwieciński said on Thursday he sees GDP growth at the beginning of 2019 as being at least 4.5 percent.

The minister stressed that statistical data concerning production, sales and employment among other issues, show that the Polish economy will manage to resist the slowdown.

Mr Kwieciński said the driver of economic growth is primarily consumption but the share of investment in GDP growth is also rising. He also stated that, according to data that is still unofficial, investment outlays last year grew by over 12 percent, which means among other things that native business is investing.

Jerzy Kwieciński noted that this year's EU investments will be the biggest since Poland acceded to the bloc. “We have planned expenditures of about PLN 70bn [EUR 16.3bn], which is a record amount,” the minister stated on private TV, adding that that money combined with the “Kaczyński five” policy proposals will be a significant stimulus to economic growth.

The investment minister said that both the latest Central Statistical Office data on production, sales and employment, but also in the assessments of rating agencies, confirm the good condition of the economy.

He pointed out that Fitch raised its forecast for Poland’s 2019 GDP growth on Wednesday from 3.8 percent to 4 percent and from 3 to 3.5 percent for 2020. He also noted that rating agencies are generally very conservative when raising their forecasts.

Mr Kwieciński admitted it would be hard to achieve GDP growth of five percent this year “due to the high base of last year”, but, as he noted, “I estimate GDP growth at the beginning of the year to be at least 4.5 percent.”