Exports to UK to fall by 3.2 percent in case of hard Brexit: report

According to a report by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), Poland’s exports to the UK would fall by EUR 430 mln should the customs tariffs proposed in case of a no-deal Brexit be introduced.

Exports to rise by four percent in 2019: ministry forecast

see more

The report indicates that all the prognoses so far had been based on the assumption that the UK introduces customs tariff based on the EU one. However, the report states, “the customs tariff published by the UK in March sheds a new light on the shape of Polish exports to the British market, because in case of a no-deal Brexit the UK is going to introduce its own customs tariff.” The customs proposed are lower than those based on the UE tariff.

Based on the new information, the Polish Economic Institute estimated that Poland’s exports to the UK would fall by EUR 430 mln in case of a hard Brexit. That would mark a drop of 3.2 percent compared to the 2018 data. According to earlier analyses of the PIE, the introduction of EU-modelled customs would cost Polish companies three times as much.

The report indicates the meat and car industries as the two main sectors which would be hurt the most by new customs. The former would note a drop by EUR 256 mln, the latter by EUR 144 mln. However, the PIE emphasises that the decrease in exports could be further influenced by the introduction by additional measures, such as additional customs or sanitary control.