A poll conducted one month before the elections shows five parties entering parliament.
The poll shows ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party maintaining its strong lead with 45 percent support. The main opposition group, the Civic Coalition (KO) has gained some support, having 28 percent, up from 26 shown in the previous poll.
Among the smaller groups, the Left list, a coalition of three left-wing parties, may count on votes of 14 percent of respondents. The centrist, rural-interest Polish People’s Party (PSL) has eight percent of support, up from the previous polls, some of which showed it just on the edge of the five-percent electoral threshold.
The most important change the poll showed, is the improved five percent support of the Confederation party, a coalition of free-market advocates, nationalists and ultraconservatives. If it fell below the electoral threshold, the ruling party’s 45 percent of the votes would likely translate to more than 50 percent of the votes cast on the parties that managed to enter the parliament, therefore giving it the majority of seats in the lower house.
However, if Confederation enters the parliament, a coalition government would likely be required.
The parliamentary elections will be held on October 13. The Sejm, Poland’s lower house, will be elected using proportional representation, while the Senate upper house, will be chosen using single-member constituencies.