The contribution of workers from Ukraine to Poland’s GDP growth over the years 2014-2018 accounted for 11 percent, according to the preliminary findings of experts from the National Bank of Poland.
“At the peak [2016-2017] the potential growth in Poland increased by about 0.7 percent thanks to [Ukrainian] immigration,” the central bank's website states. “Over the period 2014-2018, immigration [from Ukraine] contributed 11 percent to the entire GDP growth of the Polish economy.”
In 2018, for the first time since 2014, the inflow of immigrants fell. An ageing population is visible not only in Poland but also in other countries of the region, the bank explained, including in Ukraine, meaning the potential for further growth in immigration is limited. The improving economic situation in Ukraine is also likely to stem emigration, the central bank reported.
Another important factor is what the central bank refers to as “the uncertain situation of the majority of foreign workers in Poland,” which creates a risk of migrant outflows from the country if the external situation undergoes change, for instance if Western European countries open their markets to workers from the east.
The central bank’s research assumed an annual average number of Ukrainian workers in Poland of almost 900,000. According to the presentation, there is a high level of similarity between Ukrainian emigration to Poland and Polish emigration to Great Britain and Germany.