“It’s usually been the case that economic crises hit when they’re not expected” ING Bank Śląski economist Karol Pogorzelski tells PolandIN
After four-five percent growth for several quarters, Poland “can't grow that fast that long,” the economist, told us, challenging the optimism of the central bank chief Adam Glapiński, who said recently that the Polish economic miracle would continue through a world downturn.
Mr Glapiński’s “We were right, you were wrong” message to less upbeat economists in recent months has hit a nerve with some specialists, who now see it as inevitable that the business cycle will catch up with Poland.
ING has forecast growth at 3.3 percent for 2020, dropping possibly to as low as two percent in 2021.
While exports have been growing dynamically in recent quarters, helping Poland to avoid many of the negative side effects of the global trade wars, this growth will not last forever in Mr Pogorzelski’s view.
Consumption in Poland’s large domestic market will also not be as robust in after two-three quarters, he conjectured. Click here to watch the full interview.