If the presidential elections were held on May 10, as scheduled, the incumbent President Andrzej Duda would win them in the first round with a support of 65 percent, but if they were postponed due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the second round would be necessary.
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According to the poll conducted by Kantar pollster for the “Gazeta Wyborcza” daily, the second place would be for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (Civic Coalition), who can count on the support of 10 percent of voters. Other candidates’ support varies between four and six percent, according to the poll. The turnout on May 10 would be extremely low compared to other Presidential elections – only 31 percent.
Majority of Poles are against conducting the elections on the original date. As much as 73 percent of the respondents say that the ballot should be postponed due to the pandemic, only 19 percent have the contrary opinion, according to the survey.
According to the survey, if the elections were held after the coronavirus crisis, the incumbent President would win still the first round, but without the necessary support to avoid the second turn. He can count on 44 percent of votes in the first round, while Ms Kidawa-Błońska, who would again be the runner-up, – on 19 percent. The third place would be for Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the leader of the Polish People’s Party (PSL), who would be supported by eight percent of voters, followed by Robert Biedroń (the Left, seven percent), Szymon Hołownia (independent, also seven percent) and Krzysztof Bosak (Confederation, five percent).
President Duda would be the winner of the second round, with the result of 59 percent of votes, while Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska would be supported by 39 percent. Eight percent of those polled remain undecided.
The poll by Kantar shows that turnout during postponed elections would be much higher, reaching 61 percent.
The survey was carried out on March 23-24 on a representative group of 1,000 adult Poles.