Poland’s GDP will fall by 4 pct in 2020: Dep Fin Min

We don’t see inflation falling below four percent, Deputy Finance Minister Piotr Patkowski said.

When we see the tax revenues for June, we will have a better picture of how the deficit looks and what the fall in GDP is like.

When the Ministry of Finance filed its update of the Convergence Plan with the European Commission in April the forecast for the recession was 3.4 percent. Later economists at the ministry said a fall of 4-5 percent was likely, in line with the European Commission, which forecast 4.3 percent.

PM Mateusz Morawiecki said on Thursday that Poland has a chance to enjoy a V-shaped economic recovery, which means that the country could be exiting the coronavirus crisis already in the summer or autumn.

Also, according to the Prime Minister, tax relations in the budget look better than they seemed two or three months before. He also observed that the growth in unemployment in Poland has been among the lowest in Europe.

A survey of businesses last month indicated that 80 percent expected 2020 to be a worse year than 2019. Footfall has been recovering at shops to over 70 percent of pre-crisis levels, and sales figures are down only 7.7 percent on last year in May.

On the industrial front, orders were down by a quarter in May, while unemployment rose slightly to 6 percent, according to stats office figures. Business will welcome good news on growth prospects in July and on the progress in limiting COVID-19.