Incumbent president with small advantage: poll

The incumbent Polish President Andrzej Duda would win the run-off of the upcoming presidential elections, according to the new poll by Estymator pollster for the website of “Do Rzeczy” weekly.

Incumbent President wins first round of elections: full results

The incumbent President Andrzej Duda received 43.5 percent of votes, while Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw – 30.46 percent in the first...

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The poll shows that the incumbent President can count on 50.9 percent of the respondents, which is 0.3 percentage points more than in the previous survey by this pollster.

Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, would be supported by 49.1 percent of voters, 0.3 percentage points less than in the previous Estymator’s poll.

The pollster also checked the electorate transfers between the first and the second round of the elections. 98 percent of Andrzej Duda’s voters would support him in the run-off, so would 57 percent of Krzysztof Bosak’s voters, 16 percent of those who supported Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, 12 percent of those who voted for Szymon Hołownia, 8 percent of electorate of Robert Biedroń and 47 percent of other candidates’ supporters.

On the other hand Rafał Trzaskowski, would be supported by 97 pct of his electorate from the first round. 82 percent of Mr Hołownia’s voters would also chose the Mayor of Warsaw, so did 81 percent of Rober Biedroń’s voters, as well as three-quarters of those have voted for Władysław Kosinak-Kamysz, 31 percent of Krzysztof Bosak electorate and 43 percent of those that chose other candidates.

Among those who did not participate in the first round and declare voting in the run-off, 54 percent would choose Andrzej Duda, while 46 percent – Rafał Trzaskowski.

The poll was conducted on July 2-3 on a random sample of 1,016 adult Poles with the use of the method of Computer-assisted Telephone Interviews.

The second round of the presidential elections in Poland is scheduled to take place on July 12.