Polish economy will shrink 3.6 pct in 2020: bank survey

Analysts surveyed in June and July predict the Polish economy will contract by 3.6 percent in 2020, then grow by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.1 percent in 2022, a National Bank of Poland (NBP) survey says.

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The survey of 22 economists was less sanguine than the last edition of the consensus forecast. In March/April, the forecast for 2020 was a 2.6 percent recession, followed by growth in the next two years of 3.7 percent and 3.1 percent.

The NBP analysts said there is a slight chance of a recession in 2021 and 2022 but the probability of that happening is around one in ten.

The economists who took part were from financial institutions, trade unions, and employer organisations. The figure contrasts with a more gloomy prediction from the OECD of a recession of as much as 7.5 percent. The European Commission is more optimistic than the OECD in forecasting a 4.6 percent recession, the mildest recession in the EU, while their analysts see the economy growing by 4.3 percent in 2021.

The National Bank of Poland interest rate setters are to report on their 2-day July session on Tuesday. Most analysts do not expect them to change its reference interest rates from the level of 0.10 percent, the lowest rate ever, which was set at the end of May this year.