Int'l Monetary Fund upgrades Polish GDP growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Poland's economic growth in 2020 to -3.6 percent from -4.6 percent forecast in June.

The IMF believes that, in 2020, Poland's average annual inflation will amount to 3.3 percent (2.2 percent at the end of the year), and to 2.3 percent in 2021 (2.0 percent at the end of the year).

According to the IMF, Poland will record a current account surplus in 2020, which is to reach 3 percent of GDP, and is expected to amount to 1.8 percent in 2021.

“The IMF is another institution positively evaluating Poland, said the Polish Finance Minister Tadeusz Kościński.

For comparison, the global GDP growth pace is predicted to amount to -4.4 percent in 2020, which is a smaller decline than forecast in June.

“The revision reflects higher than expected GDP growth in the second quarter, mainly in advanced economies, where it started to improve after loosening some restrictions in May and June, and also as a result of a possible stronger bounce back in the third quarter,” the IMF report wrote.

In turn, next year, Poland's economy is to expand by 4.6 percent, up from 4.2 percent, according to the autumn World Economic Outlook forecast.

Comment:

The IMF did not give any specific justification for its forecast.

However, the Polish Finance Minister, Tadeusz Kościński said that the IMF’s improved growth forecast, which was in line with the Ministry’s own forecast, was proof that the government’s stimulus package was having a positive effect.

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