According to economists from the Goldman Sachs bank, the Polish economy will shrink by only 2.3 percent this year, and then it will grow at an express pace for two years. Experts assess the development prospects of other economies in the region as much worse.
According to the report published on Wednesday, the economists of the American investment bank have revised their forecasts for Central and Eastern European countries downwards. The exception was Poland, for which the economic prospects were assessed better than in September.
In the opinion of Kevin Daly, Clemens Grafe and Tadas Gedminas, Poland's GDP will decrease by 2.3% this year, instead of the 3.5% forecasted in September. This change is surprising given the recently introduced new restrictions.
In 2021, Goldman Sachs analysts expect Poland's GDP to increase by 6.1 percent instead of the previously anticipated 6 percent, and by 4.8 percent in 2022 instead of 3.6 percent. In the following years, the growth of the Polish economy is expected to slow down to about 3.5 percent. If these predictions were accurate, Poland would not suffer practically any permanent losses in connection with the pandemic - the economy would return to the pre-crisis growth path.
Daly, Grafe and Gedminas do not explain where their optimistic assessment of the outlook for the Polish economy comes from. However, the data they cited suggest that Poland stands out in the region with an expansionary fiscal policy.
Economists from Goldman Sachs expect that the first interest rate hike in Poland will take place in 2022, but they don’t anticipate it to be large. The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) reference rate is then supposed to increase from 0.1% currently up to 0.25 percent. In 2023, the experts foresee it to increase to 0.75%, compared to 1.5% before the crisis.