Record quarterly economic growth of 7.7 percent: analysis

Poland’s economy grew by 7.7 percent in the third quarter, compared to the lockdown of the previous period, Statistics Poland estimates showed on Friday, but the second wave is likely to cause a slowdown in the fourth quarter.

PolandIn’s Business Correspondent David Kennedy gave a rundown of analyst reactions to the GDP data, which is still an early estimate.

The surge in the third quarter did a lot to make up for the disastrous second quarter, but compared to the same period of 2019, the economy contracted by 1.9 percent.

“There’s likely to be a further drop in the fourth quarter, but The Finance Minister Tadeusz Kościński says there are signs that business activity is much stronger now than in the second quarter.

The Polish Economic Institute says growth in manufacturing and trade were to thank for the jump in GDP, which in their estimate both grew by 2-3 percent.

Meanwhile Rafał Benecki of ING Bank Śląski suggested that consumption fueled by government fiscal stimulus packages was behind the numbers.

However, PKO BP’s Michał Rot warned that the National Bank of Poland could not make any decisions about interest rates on the basis of these figures, as the trend should reverse in the fourth quarter. However, he said that the worst fears of the “Cassandras” about a collapse in the last part of the year, would not likely come about.

How the end of the year turns out obviously depends on how the COVID-19 crisis develops. Numbers of new cases have come down from their peak of over 25,000 but still remain at 65 cases per 100,000, which is among the highest incidences in the EU. Lockdown has been avoided, which will improve analyst outlooks, but testing is down and waits for test results are getting longer, which clouds the statistics somewhat.