GDP growth in Q2 above 9 pct: Report

Photo: Panek/Wikimedia Commons/CC-BY-SA 4.0

Poland's GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 is expected to top 9 percent year on year, after a one percent drop in the first quarter, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) said on Tuesday.

The institute said in its “Macro-Economic Monthly” that a slump in GDP in January, February and March proved to be one percent smaller than predicted, which improved the chance of a recovery in the second quarter.

According to PIE, low investment remained a hindrance to growth, with exports remaining the main driving force of the economy. “The second quarter will see a significant rebound, with the increase exceeding 9 percent year on year,” said the report.

The analysts of the Institute wrote that delays in reviving the consumer market will be balanced by industrial growth. They noted, however, that the retail market saw a 15 percent rise in March, and could rise to 25 percent in April.

PIE confirmed that the investment market was reviving slowly, closing the first quarter with a 7.8 percent drop year on year. According to the institute, the second-quarter investment figures should be close to those seen at the peak of the pandemic.

The institute also noted a slump of over 10 percent in construction, but said the sector could pick up gradually in the coming months.

The motor industry is among the more prosperous branches, with automobile exports expected to rise over 2 percent in the second quarter, the PIE stated.