Gov’t envisages 3.8 pct GDP growth in 2021, 4.3 pct in 2022

Poland expects its GDP growth to accelerate to 4.3 percent in 2022 from 3.8 percent expected for 2021, according to the 2022 budget assumptions adopted by the government on Tuesday.

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The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to the first recession in Poland since the beginning of the 1990s, according to the statement on the official government website,
br> Real GDP decreased by 2.7 percent in 2020 but thanks to the government’s actions, the recession was milder than expected, and clearly shallower than in most EU countries, it reads.

“Rapid anti-crisis measures led to an improvement in the economic situation,” the government claims.

According to the statement, the recession caused by the freezing of the economy and anti-crisis measures led to an increase of the general government deficit by just under 12 percentage points in 2020. In this respect, however, Poland is below the average for the entire European Union, which stands at 13.2 percentage points.

In its statement, the government also said that annual average CPI should be easing to 2.8 percent in 2022 from 3.1 percent expected in 2021.

Private consumption is expected to rise by 4.3 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022, with consumption growth in real terms seen at a respective 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent.

Exports are expected to increase by 8.8 percent and 7.3 percent in 2021 and 2022 respectively as Poland’s major export markets should enjoy an ever faster activity growth rate. Imports are seen growing by respective 9.4 percent and 7.8 percent.

The unemployment rate is expected to go down to 5.8 percent by the end of 2022 from 6 percent assumed for 2021.

The forecasts do not take into account the “positive impact” from the Polish Deal plan, aimed at reviving the national economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, on the economic growth as legislative works on projects included in the plan are still underway, the government stated.