Head of Central Bank forecasts two years of swift economic growth in Poland

The Head of Poland’s Central Bank, Adam Glapiński, has forecasted that Poland’s GDP will grow by 5 pct in 2021 and 5.4 pct in 2022. He also predicts that inflation will be lower next year and that the two coming years will be a time during which Poland continues to quickly close the GDP per capita gap it has with countries in Western Europe.

Mr Glapiński stated that the scenario is not written in stone as there are some risks that need to be taken into account, such as potential successive waves of the pandemic, a crisis in the Middle East, problems in the global supply chains of oil and other raw materials or natural disasters.

“If we eliminate these types of elements, we predict with an overwhelming probability that in 2021 GDP growth (...) will be around 5 percent, and in 2022 it will look even better, i.e. some 5.4 percent. These will be two years during which we will take further steps bringing us closer to Western European prosperity,” Adam Glapiński said.

The Head of the Central Bank stated that he does recognise that the pace of economic development over the next 20 years will be made more difficult by EU climate policies and the resulting increase in electricity prices. He assessed that for Poland, with its coal-based energy system, the period of transition to clean energy should be prolonged.

According to him, although inflation has recently reached alarming levels due to, among other things, the increase in the prices of electricity, oil or freight, it is expected to slow down next year.

Mr Glapiński pointed to figures from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, who forecast that inflation in Poland will fall in the near future. The Head of the Central Bank states that next year it will hover around the upper limit of the inflation target, i.e. slightly above 3.5 per cent.

The Polish Central Bank has put the inflation target at 2.5 percent plus or minus one percent.

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