Fitch agency raise its GDP growth forecast for Poland

The Fitch rating agency raised its GDP growth forecast for Poland in 2021 to 5.7 percent, with the estimate for 2022 staying at 4.5 percent, according to the Fitch report published on Thursday.

“The Polish economy has rebounded sharply, with GDP rising to pre-pandemic levels, which has not yet been seen in major euro economy areas. Stronger than expected GDP growth in Q2 (...) and an upward revision of Q1 data (...) also means a revision of our forecasts for 2021 to 5.7 percent from 4.4 percent,” the report said.

“Consumption is growing strongly, but the investment situation is more volatile. Loosening of restrictions in May supports the recovery of domestic demand, and the latest readings of high-frequency indicators suggest that the momentum of growth will be maintained in the second half of 2021. (...) Purchases in the coming year remain below pre-crisis levels. Disruptions in the supply chains and the growing presence of the Delta variant may pose challenges for the economy in the future,” the report added.

Fitch also forecasts an increase of the NBP interest rate by 15 basis points by the end of this year, with CPI inflation at the end of 2021 at 4.8 percent and 3.5 percent at the end of 2022.

Aside from the Fitch rating agency, soon Poland will also be rated by S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s. Out of these three rating agencies, Moody's rated Poland the highest - at the “A2” level. Poland's rating according to Fitch and S&P is “A-”, one level lower than Moody's. All ratings assess that Poland is economically stable.

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